. >> 18 point swing in one poll is huge. >> if we were to see that number confirmed by other poll, romney would be the favorite but it's not what we're seeing in the bulk of data. sometimes there can be a tendency to take a big headline number, when we're getting 15 or 20 polls released. if romney is doing that well among women, we will see the result confirmed by other polls quite soon. >> his people also believe that he did well from the debate independents, men, the elderly in particular. that's what their own internal polling is showing. would you agree with that? >> in the debate he was able to reposition himself toward the center of the electorate. last time we talked about, this is something very strange where romney has been playing to the base, even to some extent at his convention, he was doing that. but he shifted towards the center and obama was a little bit feeble in trying to rebut that. that's an important factor. historically candidates who can appear to be in the middle of the electorate tend to win and those on the wings tend to lose. that was a big strategic gain romney